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ESC Reporter | January 23, 2018

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All songs released: First Eurovision 2015 betting odds

All songs released: First Eurovision 2015 betting odds
Eric Nocito

Since the 40 entries have now all been released in entirety, it’s time to analyze the initial betting odds for the Eurovision Song Contest 2015 to see where who occupies the top and the bottom of the board at first blush.



The Leaders

After the landslide victory of Måns Zelmerlöw in Sweden this past Saturday, it was assumed (and rightfully so) that he would lead the Eurovision 2015 betting. Currently, he holds average betting odds of 5/2, with odds shortening in his favor.

Coming in second is the Italian entry with a 9/2 betting odds, that are somewhat drifting at the time. Sweden only recently knocked Italy out of the top spot, after assuming it since Il Volo won Sanremo 2015.

Next comes Estonia with 24/5, Australia with 64/5, and Slovenia with 14/1. With a respectable place at 4th to win, will the guest Australia actually win it all this year or will it be the virgin-to-hosting- Slovenia that will get their chance?

Despite heavy criticism by the media and public, the entry from the United Kingdom remains at ninth in the odds.

Also, even though a victory may be in the cards due to their invasion of the Ukrainian territories, Crimea and Donbas, Polina Gagarina‘s entry has gained shortening betting odds at 22/1 (14th to win). Will the results match the odds or will the West’s disapproval of Russia’s actions outshine the song?


The Bottom

Dead last is Portugal at 150/1, followed by Georgia at 150/1, and San Marino at 125/1. It is important to note that despite continued low betting odds for Portugal and San Marino, they rarely make it at the bottom of the scoreboard in recent years. In 2014, San Marino had their first qualification to the Grand Final, while Portugal missed out on it by two points (directly behind San Marino at 11th).


Looking Back to 2014

It is, however, too early to predict anything results-wise. Last year at this time, Armenia was topping the betting odds, making it seem like it was going to be an easy win for Aram Mp3. The song landed at a respectable fourth place, but failed to make it the landslide victory that the odds predicted.

Armenia drifted in the odds only after the first semi-final concluded and Sanna Nielsen became the top contender. She remained there until after Conchita Wurst‘s performance in the Grand Final. Conchita was previously in the top 10 of the betting, but wasn’t in the top five until after the second semi-final.

For everyone thinking that it will be a landslide victory for Sweden, look back to 2014, and remember when Armenia was pegged for the same thing.

  • Dan

    Vem har sagt att det ska bli en promenad seger för Sverige. Bara för att inte Armenien vann, så kan väll andra låtar göra det. Anledningen att inte Armenien vann var för att dom hade en dålig låt. Det är många länder som har toppat listan länge som också vunnit.

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