Analysis of Eurovision 2016's first semi-final results
Eric Nocito | On 11, May 2016
After the betting odds were analyzed directly before the live broadcast of the first semi-final, we can take a look and see if they predicted correctly.
What the betting got right
Well first off, Russia qualified, just like the odds predicted. No surprise there. Armenia and Malta qualified as well, each with extremely solid odds leading up.
The Netherlands and Cyprus qualified as predicted by the odds, as well as the Czech Republic, having done so for the very first time in the history of the contest. Moving down the odds, Hungary and Croatia qualified as planned as well.
Where the betting went wrong
Then the disconnect begins. Iceland, which was fourth in the betting to qualify, shockingly did not qualify. The entire audience began chanting “Iceland,” only to be disappointed when it was not called.
Also, Bosnia & Herzegovina was predicted to qualify, but this did not happen.
Azerbaijan and Austria surprised the odds and qualified for the Grand Final. Azerbaijan was 11th in the betting, but Austria, however, was dead last at 18th in the betting odds.
Surprise on Saturday?
With the shocking non-qualification of Iceland, who had such a strong presence in the betting odds, one can take a step back and realize: Is Russia’s strong betting odd victory really that strong after all? Will a surprise victor prevail?